NEWS

The world is changing fast — but how fast is diplomacy keeping up?

The Hili Forum in Abu Dhabi (8–9 September 2025) brought together policymakers, diplomats, and experts to explore how technology, geopolitics, and multilateral governance intersect in an era of uncertainty. How do states navigate an era where algorithms can decide who lives or dies on the battlefield? Where AI shapes both opportunities for peace and new forms of conflict? And where shifting demographics, economic power, and coalitions turn the global stage into a constantly moving, unpredictable chessboard? This report focuses on the session titled ‘Geneva vs Algorithms: Redefining Laws of War and Peace‘, which examined the role of AI and Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS) in conflict, and how Geneva-based institutions can guide responsible governance. Reflections presented here are informed by insights from across the Forum — from debates on geopolitical instability to the rise of new coalitions, and the challenges of keeping diplomacy effective in a rapidly evolving, tech-driven world.

Diplomacy in beta on a shifting chessboard

Diplomacy today resembles a beta version: functional but still being tested, adapted, and iterated in real time.

Diplomacy now operates in a fast-moving, experimental environment. Rules are incomplete, institutions lag behind, and norms are tested while technologies are already deployed. States, international organisations, and other actors must navigate uncertainty, iterate governance models, and experiment with coalitions to respond to fast-moving challenges in geopolitics, technology, and security.

Geopolitical disruption may be permanent — there seems to be little expectation of a return to a pre-existing order. The only certainty is uncertainty. Demographic and economic changes — including the rise of China, Indonesia, Brazil, Nigeria, and regions in Africa and the Middle East — are reshaping influence and opportunity. Middle powers face a delicate balancing act: when major powers clash, they may be forced to choose sides or risk becoming targets; in calmer periods, they navigate a shifting chessboard of alliances, coalitions, and partnerships.

The Global South’s voice remains underrepresented, even as legitimacy increasingly depends on it. BRICS economies are gaining influence relative to the G7, and new formations such as the G20 and other plurilateral arrangements are emerging. Yet the UN remains central to governance, with reform needed to maintain relevance. Core principles — non-intervention, international law, peace, and security — remain essential, while smaller, issue-based coalitions are increasingly prominent in economic and security affairs.

Algorithms of war and peace: Risks and opportunities

AI is not just a tool — it is a force reshaping war, defence, and international security.

AI in conflict is a central concern, with risks extending far beyond LAWS. AI is integrated into target identification, decision-support systems, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) operations. Maintaining humans in the loop is essential to ensure oversight; yet, human decision-making is slower and is becoming emotionally detached from consequences. Emerging threats include automated disinformation, rapid exploitation of cyber vulnerabilities, and convergence of AI with robotics, biology, chemistry, and nuclear-adjacent technologies. These developments illustrate systemic risk, where speed, opacity, and cross-domain interaction multiply systemic risks.

Yet AI can also save lives, but only if governance keeps pace with deployment. AI also has defensive and peace-enhancing applications, from conflict prevention and mediation to force-protection systems like the Iron Dome. As defence budgets increase and include AI, key question is whether they will allocate sufficient resources to safeguards — red-teaming, audits, explainability research, and ethical oversight — or whether protective measures will lag behind deployment. Responsible is critical to ensure AI serves stability rather than exacerbates conflict.

Governance beyond the battlefield: Geneva + algorithms

EspriTech de Geneve allows international principles to meet standards and practice.

The UN has been unusually active on issues related to AI in the military context. The Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) on LAWS, UN General Assembly (UNGA) resolution 79/239, and UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) resolution A/HRC/60/63, highlight global momentum. Even the UN Security Council debated on AI’s impact on global peace and security. An idea of a ‘Fourth Geneva Convention’ on AI and technology was floated; on the other hand, states agreed that International Law already applies in the context of AI. However, operationalising principles of the International Humanitarian Law (IHL), such as distinction, proportionality, and precaution, is complicated by black-box AI, biased datasets, and complex supply chains.

Lessons from cybersecurity negotiations under the UN Open-Ended Working Group (OEWG) on ICTs show that international agreements can combine existing law, voluntary norms of responsible state behaviour, confidence-building measures, and capacity-building initiatives. The challenge, however, is that many states show limited willingness to implement even binding obligations, let alone voluntary commitments. Here, the role of other stakeholders — industry, civil society, academia — becomes indispensable, as highlighted by the Geneva Dialogue on Responsible Behaviour in Cyberspace, which emphasises multi-actor responsibility and implementation.

Governance must extend across the full AI lifecycle: pre-design, design, development, evaluation, testing, procurement, deployment, operation, and decommissioning. Ethics- and human-rights-by-design, explainability, enforceable limits for high-risk uses, and mandatory human oversight at critical decision points are essential. Responsibility must be shared: ‘the machine did it’ cannot be an acceptable excuse. Various stakeholders and sectors must take their part of responsibility: international organisations and governments, as well as vendors, integrators, the tech community, civil society and academia. Geneva has a rich international and multistakeholder digital policy ecosystem, including CCW GGE, UNHRC, ITU, ISO, Conference on Disarmament, ICRC, UNIDIR, the Geneva Internet Platform, and the Geneva Dialogue, to name but a few. The tech spirit of Geneva allows principles, technical standards, ethics, and diplomacy and multistakeholder engagement to converge, shaping norms and rules and translating them into operational guidance and governance frameworks. Geneva’s role is critical to ensuring that algorithms serve peace rather than exacerbate conflict.

Capacity development for diplomacy in the AI age

Preparing diplomats for the beta version of diplomacy is a priority.

One cross-cutting question comes to mind: how do we, then, prepare diplomats and policymakers to operate in this ‘beta’ environment? They must navigate shifting geopolitical landscapes, complex technology risks, and evolving coalitions. Capacity-building must, therefore, focus on equipping diplomats with the knowledge and skills to respond to new technologies, multistakeholder partnerships, and emerging governance challenges. Importantly, learning is not enough; unlearning outdated assumptions is equally important.

Innovative training approaches were emphasised: scenario-based games, storytelling, and AI-assisted simulations can prepare diplomats for high-stakes negotiation and crisis situations. Engaging younger professionals is also essential: Gen Z brings technical literacy and a demand for fair, transparent governance, helping institutions prepare for the next generation of challenges. Diplomats need fluency in AI, cybersecurity, algorithmic risk, and the ways technology intersects with international law and multistakeholder governance. The AI apprenticeship programme and courses on AI governance and cybersecurity policy are necessary. Training methods must be innovative — scenario-based games, storytelling, and AI tools themselves — to simulate fast-moving crises and high-stakes negotiation. Young professionals must be involved early: Gen Z brings both technical literacy and a demand for transparent, fair governance, preparing institutions for the next generation of challenges.

From debate to action

The Hili Forum illustrated that diplomacy today is experimental, adaptive, and iterative — a true ‘beta version’ in the tech jargon. Algorithms shaping the future of geopolitics and geoeconomy, international security, war and peace. 

Combining inspiring Abu Dhabi deliberations on changes in diplomacy with established Geneva principles about humanity and its vibrant digital ecosystem provides a pathway to ensure AI is governed responsibly. Flexible, principled, and risk-aware diplomacy can ensure algorithms serve peace, stability, and shared international security objectives. Are we up to the task?

Disclaimer: To walk the talk, the writing of this text relied on AI. While AI helped make the text more readable and engaging, the substance comes from human expertise — the participants of the Forum and the author.

Under Bulgarian law, content is regulated separately from the transmission and therefore the rules governing the provision of media services are stipulated in a separate set of legislative acts. Currently, audio-visual media services (both linear – programmes provided at a scheduled time and watched simultaneously by the audience and non-linear or on-demand services) and radio services are regulated as media services under the Law on Radio and Television (LRT) and the related subsidiary legislation. Said law also regulates the services of video-sharing platforms, although such services are explicitly excluded from the statutory definition of media services. Except for a few rules concerning transparency of ownership and the ultimate beneficial owners set out in various laws, the content and activities of traditional print media, such as newspapers and magazines are not subject to statutory regulation.

The regulatory body in audio-visual media services is the Council on Electronic Media (CEM). It is the independent state authority vested with the powers to regulate both audio-visual media services and video-sharing platforms domiciled in Bulgaria.

Ownership restrictions

Pursuant to the LRT, providers of audio-visual media services shall be traders (individuals or legal entities) registered under Bulgarian law or legal entities incorporated in another EEA member state. Effective from 1 January 2014, the Law on the Economic and Financial Relations with Entities Registered in Jurisdictions with Preferential Tax Treatment, their Controlled Entities and their Beneficial Owners prohibits any entities registered in a jurisdiction having a preferential tax treatment, as well as their controlled entities to incorporate or acquire a shareholding in an entity that applies for or has been awarded a TV or radio programme licence under the LRT, provided that the shareholding confers 10 per cent or more of the voting rights. A similar restriction applies to publishers of periodic printed media, however, not to TV and radio operators, whose programmes are not intended for distribution via electronic communications networks for digital terrestrial or analogue broadcasting, as well as to on-demand service providers.

Licensing requirements

Audio-visual media services in Bulgaria are provided under a licence, upon registration or following a notification to the CEM.

Radio and TV activity involving programmes transmitted via digital terrestrial or terrestrial analogue networks are carried out based on a licence issued by the CEM. Licences for programmes transmitted via terrestrial analogue networks are granted under a tender procedure initiated at the request of the interested party or the CEM. In its application, the interested party may indicate the broadcasting point and territorial coverage. In three (if no international spectrum coordination is required) to eight months (if international spectrum coordination is required) the CEM coordinates the technical aspects of the broadcasting with the CRC and thereafter opens a tender (depending on the available spectrum). Based on the results of the tender, the CEM resolves on the issuance of a licence for radio or television activity and a permit for the use of spectrum by the CRC for the applicant ranked first. Following the entry into force of the said resolution, the CEM would issue the respective licence and the CRC the related spectrum permit.

Foreign programmes and local content requirements

Only audio-visual media service providers under the jurisdiction of Bulgaria are subject to authorisation in Bulgaria. Where a foreign service provider is established in an EEA country the activity as an audio-visual media service provider might be carried out based on the freedom of reception principle. Bulgaria may not restrict the service if the provider complies with the Audio-Visual Media Services Directive in the country of origin. Where circumvention of rules occurs, the Bulgarian regulator may restrict certain content, such as incitement to hatred, which may not be banned in the provider’s country of origin but violates local laws. Such restrictions must follow a statutory procedure and are only allowed under exceptional circumstances (eg, where the service openly, substantially and grossly violates public order or gives rise to a serious and grave risk of affecting public health, etc).

Advertising

Broadcast media advertising is regulated primarily by Chapter 4 of the LRT, which implements the relevant provisions of the AVMS Directive. The rules on media advertising cover audio-visual commercial messages, commercial messages transmitted on the radio, as well as those distributed by the operators of video-sharing platforms under the jurisdiction of Bulgaria. Thus, the operators of such video-sharing platforms also have to comply with the LRT advertising requirements (mainly commercial communication to be clearly identified as such, not to incite discrimination or behaviour that endangers human health and safety, to comply with the restrictions related to advertising of alcoholic beverages, and with the prohibition on advertising of cigarettes, other tobacco and related products, including e-cigarettes and refill containers, to protect children’s health and mental well-being, etc). The operators of video-sharing platforms should also introduce appropriate measures that prevent the distribution of user-generated content that violates the above-identified advertising requirements.

Must-carry obligations

Bulgarian law sets forth two sets of must-carry obligations – for providers of radio and TV programmes distribution networks (cable and satellite) and DTB network operators.

Must-carry obligations for conveying nationwide and regional programmes of the Bulgarian National Television and the Bulgarian National Radio free of charge are imposed on all cable and satellite operators that distribute TV programmes in Bulgaria. This obligation was reviewed and confirmed by the CRC in 2014.

Regulation of new media content

Following the transposition of the revised AVMS Directive, currently, the LRT also regulates the video-sharing platform services provided by video-sharing platform providers under Bulgarian jurisdiction.

Provision of such video-sharing platform services is subject to a notification to the CEM, which notification shall be accompanied by draft general terms and conditions of the service in respect of which the LRT prescribes a minimum content requirement. The notification is thereafter entered into the public registry of video-sharing platforms kept by the CEM and the general terms and conditions are coordinated by the authority within 30 days of submission. The providers of video-sharing platforms have the obligation to protect:

• minors from programmes, user-generated videos and commercial communications that may impair their physical, mental, moral and (or) social development; and
• the general public from programmes, user-generated videos and commercial communications containing incitement to violence or hatred directed against a group of individuals or a member of a group based on any discrimination criteria, as well as from content the distribution of which constitutes an activity being a crime under the Bulgarian Penal Code, such as public provocation to commit a terrorist act, child pornography, racism and xenophobia.

Digital switchover

Analogue TV broadcasting was switched off on 30 September 2013 and from that date, broadcasting of terrestrial television in Bulgaria is digital only.

The relocation of the frequencies freed up as a result of the digital switchover has been carried out based on the Plan for Implementation of Terrestrial Digital Television Broadcasting (DVB-T) in Bulgaria and several amendments to the Electronic Communications Law and the ЗРТ. The licences for use of the frequencies for DVB-T have been granted on the grounds of the competitive bid procedure; however, from 2021, only one national and one regional multiplex operator is in service, each providing for six programmes. The 782-862MHz band has been designated for mobile wireless broadband applications (the digital dividend) once this band is released from current government use, therefore, such band cannot be used for digital broadcasting.

Digital formats

Bulgarian telecommunications law is technology neutral and therefore authorisation regimes are based on the use of particularly scarce resources (spectrum), rather than on the type of particular technology (multi-channelling, high-definition, data services). In principle, the LRT regulates only two types of permits – for programmes transmitted via digital terrestrial networks and for programmes transmitted via terrestrial analogue broadcasting networks. Only TV and radio operators transmit programmes via terrestrial analogue broadcasting networks’ own spectrum permit issued by the CRC in addition to the programme licence granted by the CEM. Providers of programmes transmitted via digital terrestrial networks do not have a spectrum licence on their own. Rather, they are using the services of an entity authorised by the CRC for the use of the DTB spectrum (multiplex operators) to broadcast their programmes. Such multiplex operators have the obligation to transmit licensed TV and radio programmes of the type and profile determined by or coordinated with the CEM under the rules of the LRT.

Media plurality

There are no specific legal rules or processes for assessing media plurality by competent state bodies or for instructing companies to take steps in that regard. There is a general requirement that when deciding on whether to issue a licence for radio or TV activities, the CEM shall evaluate, among others, whether by issuing a licence, favourable conditions for media diversity and pluralism will be created. Additionally, the LRT prescribes that in exercising its functions, the CEM can undertake measures to ensure sufficient visibility of media services in accordance with general interest objectives, such as media pluralism, freedom of expression and cultural diversity. Furthermore, the LRT requires that the CEM shall protect freedom of expression, the independence of media service providers and media pluralism in exercising its powers. Thus, in the lack of effective mechanisms, quality journalism and media independence may be affected by the lack of plurality in media owners or economic models.

Key trends and expected changes

In 2024, based on the CEM Annual Report 2024, the issues attracting the attention of the media regulator in Bulgaria were very similar to those at the EU level. Some of these issues were the media coverage of the war between the military group Hamas and Israel, and the events in the Russian Federation provoked by the Wagner private military group. Focused monitoring was conducted on the coverage of the death of Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny and the coverage of the war in Ukraine for the period from 16 February to 3 March 2024. Focused thematic monitoring was also carried out with respect to the adoption of the euro in Bulgaria and the entry of the country in the eurozone between 18-31 January 2024.

In 2024, the protection of children, as a vulnerable audience, remained a priority of the regulator. On 15 February 2024, the CEM held a discussion on the topic ‘Children and the Media,’ during which a commissioned study on children’s media consumption was presented. The results of the study indicate that television is the most widely consumed type of media among children, with a significant majority (67 per cent) watching television daily. Furthermore, in 2024, the CEM adopted a document entitled Recommended Screen Time for Children and Guidelines for the Use of Media and Online Content. The recommendations primarily focus on child protection and adult support, emphasising that screens — and especially quality content — can offer numerous benefits in areas such as education, digital literacy, and access to culture.

On 11 April 2025, the Accessibility Requirements for Products and Services Law was promulgated in the State Gazette. This legislative act applies inter alia to services providing access to audiovisual media services. The legislation does not apply to pre-recorded media content with a fixed duration, published before 28 June 2025 on websites and mobile applications. The new law regulates the accessibility requirements for products and services; the procedure for assessing the conformity of products with these requirements; the obligations of economic operators who place products on the market or provide services; the supervision of products made available on the market and (or) put into operation; and the control of the compliance of services with the accessibility requirements. The CEM is designated as the supervisory authority for services providing access to audiovisual media services.