Several years before the COVID-19 pandemic, the proliferation of digital technologies 4.0 raised concerns about automation and the consequent loss of jobs. The first European Skills and Jobs Survey carried out by Cedefop, which gathered information on the skills and professional experiences of adult employees in the EU in 2014, showed that 43 % of them experienced changes due to the introduction of new machines and ICT systems in their workplace. At that time, popular media debates on the rise of robots and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms presented a bleak picture of a future secondary age society without jobs and polarised.
Early research on the implications of digitalisation indicated that half of all jobs in advanced economies could be replaced by AI algorithms. Given the state-of-the-art self-learning capabilities in AI and advanced robotics, which go well beyond algorithmic or rules-based computer programming, the concern is that a wider range of tasks that were previously inaccessible and cognitively difficult could now be susceptible to machine substitution.
The speech on the impact of digitalisation on the labour market focused on forecasting its potential for job destruction. Research on future job displacements through new digital technologies focused on the so-called “job polarisation or routine biased technological change (RBTC)”. This implies that digitalisation tends to eliminate medium quality, routine or manual jobs where human input is more user-friendly, given the accuracy and cost efficiency of robots or computer machines in carrying out codiable and programmable tasks.
More recent studies provide a more nuanced picture. They note that while digitalisation inevitably leads to some job losses, it is likely that in most jobs it will mainly lead to the transformation of tasks. This has shifted the focus of the debate, which has become increasingly concerned about meeting upskilling and reskilling needs and addressing digital divides, making vulnerable groups particularly exposed to the disruptive impact of digitalisation.
It is clear that difficulties in the supply of skills and talent persist in the EU: 3 in 4 EU companies struggle to find employees with the right skills. Skills shortages may have been temporarily mitigated by the pandemic, but has since returned to pre-pandemic levels. What should be worrying is that, following the pandemic, investment in corporate training has collapsed and participation in (informal) training decreased substantially.
Such trends are incompatible with achieving a just digital transition. The adoption and use of digital technologies requires qualification strategies within the company. These strategies should take into account human-centric corporate human resources management practices and social dialogue to counter the negative employment effects of the adoption of digital technology.