Several years before the COVID-19 pandemic, the spread of category 4.0 digital technologies raised concerns about automation and the consequent loss of jobs. The first European Skills and Jobs Survey carried out by Cedefop, which gathered information on the skills and professional experience of adult employees in the EU in 2014, showed that 43 % of them had undergone changes as new machines and ICT systems were introduced at their workplace. Discussions in popular media about the rise of robots and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms at the time showed an unfortunate vision of a future jobless society and a polarised second-age machine society.
Early research on the impact of digitalisation has shown that up to half of all jobs in advanced economies could be replaced by AI algorithms. Given the cutting-edge self-learning capacities in AI and advanced robotics, which go well beyond algorithmic or rules-based programming, there is a fear that a wider range of previously unavailable and cognitively demanding tasks might currently be prone to automatic exchanges.
The debate on the impact of digitalisation on the labour market focused on anticipating its potential for job losses. Research on future job losses due to new digital technologies focuses on theassumption of job polarisation or routine technological change (RBTC). Digitalisation is expected to tend to eliminate medium-skilled, routine or manual workplaces where human input is more demanding due to the accuracy and cost-effectiveness of robots or computers when performing coded and programmable tasks.
More recent studies show a more nuanced picture. They point out that while digitalisation inevitably leads to job losses, it is likely to lead mainly to a transformation of tasks in most jobs. This shifted the focus of the debate, which increasingly focused on meeting upskilling and reskilling needs and addressing the digital divide, making vulnerable groups particularly exposed to the disruptive effects of digitalisation.
It is clear that difficulties persist in acquiring skills and talent in the EU: Three out of 4 companies in the EU face difficulties in finding employees with the right skills. The shortage of skilled workers may have been temporarily mitigated by the pandemic, but has since returned to pre-pandemic levels. As a result of the pandemic, investment in business training has collapsed and (informal) participation in training decreased significantly as a result of the pandemic.
These trends are not compatible with achieving a just digital transition. The adoption and use of digital technologies requires business skills strategies. Such strategies should take into account business practices in human resources management and social dialogue targeting people in order to counter the negative employment effects of the introduction of digital technologies.